AMERICA!!! Yeah!…go USA!!! All time highs again. I thought we would get a little upward bias on a holiday week, but didn’t expect this much.
The markets are now hanging their hats (Thursday) on the jobs report and unemployment numbers. The jobs number came in at 288K with an estimate of 215K. The unemployment number is now down to 6.1%. Of course that number doesn’t take into account the amount of people that are under employed or have stopped looking all together. ISM non manufacturing numbers came out lower than expected.
We are back to the point that good news is good news, and bad news is good news. The Fed doesn’t appear to want to take their foot off the accelerator, even tho they are saying the economy is getting better. If the economy is getting better, don’t you think it would be a good idea for the Fed to back out, and start to raise rates? They won’t, why? Because they are afraid of spooking the markets. If there were a time when the Fed should spook the markets it is now with the markets at all time highs. This way if we get a pullback in the markets, it would be a healthy thing.
We have gone from May 16th with only 4 down days in the markets. YUP!, 4 stinking days of minimal down. The bears are no longer in a slumber state, they are dead buried and planted over. Nothing is ever going to bring this market down. NOTHING!
The reports say that the individual investor is not in this market. Now they want to get the public in the market at ALL TIME HIGHS. Great strategy for an exit from the big guys.
The VIX is now comfortably below 11%. If you account for the rolls of the VIX over the years, we are at historic lows of volatility. Options are cheap, protection is cheap, and there is ZERO fear in the markets.
The upcoming week is very light on reports.
Nothing is scheduled Monday
Tuesday we have the NFIB small business index and consumer credit numbers that will be in the foreground.
Wednesday we have the FOMC meeting. What else can the Fed do to build this market higher? I guess we will find out what it can throw at the market this time to keep everyone fully invested.
Thursday we have the weekly jobless claims numbers. Last week the number was slightly higher than expected. But the market doesn’t care.
Friday we have the Federal Budget numbers to end the week.
Happy Independence Day to everyone! Be proud to be an American especially on its 238th birthday.